The current administration’s new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China threaten American agriculture, a $191 billion export sector. The tariffs—25% on Canada and Mexico and doubled to 20% on Chinese goods—have sparked trade wars, leading to retaliatory levies on U.S. products like wheat and poultry. U.S. farm groups warn that higher costs and reduced exports could strain farmers already facing financial losses. The ongoing trade disputes have caused disruptions, with some Canadian grocers canceling orders from U.S. farmers. Industry leaders warn that these tariff wars are harming those dependent on global trade.

During her address at the USDA’s 101st Agricultural Outlook Forum, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins highlighted the critical role of agriculture in America’s survival and the challenges facing the industry. She emphasized that agriculture is not just an economic sector but a fundamental part of the nation's identity and sustainability. Rollins described the current state of the agricultural economy as dire, citing a record trade deficit of $45.5 billion, a 30% rise in production costs, a shrinking number of farms, and an aging farmer population. She pledged to introduce major policy initiatives to address these concerns. Rollins expressed her commitment to supporting farmers and working closely with industry leaders over the next four years.

Soft white wheat from the Pacific Northwest is gaining popularity in Mexico, with 2.9 million bushels purchased by the end of December, surpassing the five-year average for the country. Mexico, traditionally favoring red wheat varieties, has seen increased demand due to lower soft white wheat prices and efforts by U.S. Wheat Associates to promote the variety. Soft white wheat is used in Mexico's cookie, cracker, and baked goods industries. The 2024-2025 marketing year could mark a turning point in Mexico's relationship with U.S. white wheat, potentially becoming a significant growth area for PNW wheat growers. However, the impact of impending U.S. tariffs on Mexico and other countries remains uncertain.

Farmers and industry staff from southeastern and eastern Idaho took part in a Direct Seed Workshop hosted by the Idaho Wheat Commission this week, where they explored best practices for managing no-till crops and producing a healthy harvest. This year’s workshop covered essential topics, including grain bin safety, soil health, the benefits of using stripper headers, and a discussion on HB4 drought-tolerant wheat. The Idaho Wheat Commission remains dedicated to providing educational opportunities and programs that help wheat producers improve sustainability and profitability.

The U.S. wheat industry ensures an open, transparent market where global buyers can trust its supply system, consistent quality, and the support of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), funded in part by wheat grower assessments. With half their crop exported, U.S. farmers store and transport wheat efficiently year-round. The Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) certifies export quality, while strict inspection procedures meet customer needs. Reports and testing uphold quality, and U.S. laws protect export contracts, prohibiting tariffs and ensuring compliance with trade rules. Through trade and technical support, USW helps buyers maximize the value of U.S. wheat, reinforcing a legacy of quality, transparency, and partnership.

The world is shifting away from U.S. economic and political dominance as the BRICS coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) gains influence, surpassing the G7 countries in GDP and population while playing a major role in global grain production and trade. Economist Dan Basse describes this transition as a duopoly, with the U.S. and China leading opposing countries. Key factors driving this change include the U.S.-China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and China’s strategic partnerships with Brazil and Africa to reduce reliance on U.S. grain. Protectionism is resurging, particularly in the U.S. under the current administration, with new tariffs imposed on key trade partners. These shifts could lead to fewer export opportunities and lower grain prices, posing challenges for farmers and grain traders.