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Emerging Duopoly Will Impact Grain Sector

The world is shifting away from U.S. economic and political dominance as the BRICS coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) gains influence, surpassing the G7 countries in GDP and population while playing a major role in global grain production and trade. Economist Dan Basse describes this transition as a duopoly, with the U.S. and China leading opposing countries. Key factors driving this change include the U.S.-China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and China’s strategic partnerships with Brazil and Africa to reduce reliance on U.S. grain. Protectionism is resurging, particularly in the U.S. under the current administration, with new tariffs imposed on key trade partners. These shifts could lead to fewer export opportunities and lower grain prices, posing challenges for farmers and grain traders.