IDAHO WHEAT COMMISSION

News

Ukraine grain a 'big-time next-year problem'

Though futures markets already have priced in uncertainty tied to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, grain markets the world over will truly begin to feel the impact of supply deficits on the global wheat and corn balance sheets beginning in August and September.  How a global wheat supply deficit of 3 million tonnes plays out is largely dependent on how the rest of the world treats Russia financially.  Ukraine, one of the biggest countries in Europe and the 45th largest in the world, features a land area roughly the size of the US Central states stretching from Chicago, Illinois, US, to New York City, from Toronto, Ontario, Canada, to Raleigh, North Carolina, US. Half of that land is devoted to agricultural endeavors that employ about 15% of the population compared with 3% of the US population. Wheat is produced throughout Ukraine, but most production takes place in the eastern areas, currently a hot spot for fighting, Lardy said. That’s unfortunate for grain since the region is a key southerly logistical route for crops to ocean-going ports, which are closed indefinitely and will require extensive rebuilding.

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December 19, 2024
Wheat Price Could Follow Futures Market Higher
A small grains economist at Washington State University, shared an optimistic yet cautious outlook for wheat prices at the Tri-State Grain Growers Convention. Weaker basis levels signal potential for price increases if futures rise, supported by reduced Black Sea exports and improved U.S. export performance. Challenges include a strong U.S. dollar, high ending stocks, and proposed tariffs that could impact key markets. Fortenbery advised farmers to monitor market conditions, consider hedge-to-arrive contracts, and capitalize on short-term price opportunities.
December 19, 2024
U.S. Wheat Leader Predicts Global Wheat Trade to Increase 50% by 2050
Global wheat trade is predicted to increase by 50% over the next 25 years, rising from 216 million metric tons to over 325 million metric tons, according to Vince Peterson, president of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW). Peterson emphasized the U.S.'s strong position in selling premium-quality wheat to high-paying markets despite holding only an 11% global market share. U.S. wheat production has reached 54 million metric tons, an eight-year high, with export projections of 22.5 million metric tons—the highest in four years. Soft white wheat, predominantly grown in the Pacific Northwest, has seen nearly a 50% increase in export sales compared to last year. Key markets such as the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand have recorded significant growth, with South Korea seeing a 132% increase in milling wheat imports.
December 19, 2024
Ag Trade's Uncertain Future: Exports Offer Economic Impact Far Beyond the Farm Gate
International agricultural trade is essential to the U.S. economy, contributing over $100 billion in export value from key commodities, including soybeans, corn, and wheat. Wheat, a cornerstone of Idaho’s agricultural industry, plays a significant role in these exports, Challenges like tariffs, trade wars, and growing competition from South America threaten U.S. market share, which has declined from 62% in 1979 to 12% today. While tariffs can benefit some domestic industries, they often undermine agricultural exports by accelerating foreign competition. To stay competitive, investments in trade relations, infrastructure improvements, and legislation are critical. Enhancing transportation systems and expanding ports ensures Idaho wheat and other U.S. commodities remain integral to global markets and continue to support the economy.
December 19, 2024
Farmers Look Back on 2024, and Ahead to Next Year
U.S. farmers approach 2025 with cautious optimism, navigating challenges shaped by labor, trade, weather, and shifting market dynamics. Trade remains vital to agricultural success, and for Idaho commodities, protecting and expanding export markets is crucial amid ongoing uncertainties. Economic pressures are mounting, with rising production costs, escalating labor expenses, and declining farm incomes placing significant strain on farmers. According to University of Idaho Professor Xiaoli Etienne, fertilizer prices have stabilized, but global factors like China’s export restrictions continue to create market volatility. Meanwhile, relief from high fuel and equipment costs seems unlikely in the near future.
December 19, 2024
Farmer Directors Elect Mike Spier as Next President and CEO of U.S. Wheat Associates
U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) elected Mike Spier as its next President and CEO, effective July 1, 2025, following Vince Peterson’s retirement. Spier, an Oregon native with over 30 years of experience in grain merchandising and market development, has held leadership roles across global regions and implemented wheat export programs in over 50 countries. Peterson praised Spier’s qualifications and strong industry relationships, highlighting his commitment to advancing U.S. wheat internationally. USW’s mission is to expand global wheat markets, funded by producer checkoff dollars and USDA support.