Speakers at the Water Street Solutions Edge Conference in Tucson, Ariz., say they expect inflation to return in 2024. Not only will it have an impact on the interest rate environment, but it could bring the fund or speculative community back in to buy commodities, which would be positive for the grain markets. Inflation cooled in 2023 following a series of interest rate hikes by the Fed. However, Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX, says there are already economic signs inflation could rear its ugly head in 2024. "With interest rates coming down, we've seen a resurgence in interest in buying houses once again at lower mortgage rates," he says. "Those are two sticky areas of inflation that can bring it back."

Attacks on ships in the Red Sea are unlikely for now to affect exports of French cereals to Asia, notably China which is a key market for France, since they are targeted at ships going towards Israel, farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday. The Iran-allied Houthi militia have been attacking commercial ships in the region since November in an escalation of Israel's war with Palestinian Hamas militants in Gaza. The Houthis have said that they would target ships heading to Israel and that their actions are a show of support for the Palestinians. (Wheat exports) going to China are going to go through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in the opposite way as the one that is threatened.

Farmers planted fewer acres of winter wheat in 2023 than 2022. The USDA says planted area of 34.425 million acres was 6% below the previous year’s total of 36.699 million, with acreages for all types falling, including a 5% cut for hard red winter to 24 million acres, a 13% drop for soft red winter to 6.86 million acres, and a 5% decline in white winter to 3.54 million acres. The planted area totals include significant year-to-year decreases in the top production states of Kansas and Texas and record low planted area for Michigan.

Flour millers and bakers in the Philippines have a strong preference for U.S. wheat, and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has spent many years building relationships in the important market. Because of USW’s work there, USDA invited USW to participate in “Spotlight on the Philippines,” a webinar held in December that was organized by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) office in Manila. USW Assistant Regional Director Joe Bippert presented during the event. He shared USW’s experiences in the market and some of its plans for the coming year.

Several U.S. commodity groups received allocations through the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) Program to help build commercial export markets for U.S. agricultural products and commodities. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture allocated a total of $174.3 million for 2024 in MAP funding and $27 million in FMD funding. The FAS provides cost-share assistance for activities such as consumer advertising, public relations, point-of-sale demonstrations, participation in trade fairs and exhibits, market research and technical assistance.

The next farm bill is high on lawmakers' list of priorities, but Congress must clear the path in order to make progress, according to the National Association of Wheat Growers. "With there being a couple fiscal cliffs in front of us, there's a need to pass another stopgap spending measure – that does take precedent, just from a 'keeping the government open' point of view," Jake Westlin, vice president of policy and communications for NAWG, told the Capital Press. The organization lobbies in Washington, D.C., on behalf of wheat farmers across the country.

A few years ago, Owyhee County leaders noticed a sort of loophole in their comprehensive plan. Under the plan, it was perfectly above board for someone to buy a parcel of agricultural land, then undergo a rezoning or conditional use permitting process to allow one or more houses to be built. To assess the scope of the issue, county leaders made a map of the conditional use permits approved in the past 20 years, recalled Mary Huff, the county’s planning director, at a panel on farmland preservation at the Idaho Farm and Ranch Conference on Jan. 4. She called the results — how much ag ground the county had been ceded to low-density residential development not tied to a farm or ranch operation — “horrifying.