The U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) trade team season is underway. Throughout the summer, milling and grain industry representatives from South America, Ecuador, South Korea, the Philippines, Chile, and Southeast Asia will tour the U.S. wheat supply chain and meet farmers producing high-quality wheat. Idaho will play a key role, welcoming a team from the Japan Flour Millers Association in April. During their visit, the delegation will tour the wheat farm of Idaho Wheat commissioner and USW Chairman Clark Hamilton, gaining firsthand insight into the state’s wheat production practices. These visits help strengthen relationships between Idaho wheat farmers and international buyers, reinforcing the state’s reputation for high-quality wheat.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) warn that proposed U.S. trade actions targeting China’s shipping sector could raise export costs and hurt U.S. wheat growers. A key concern is a proposed $1 million port fee per vessel, an 8–12% export tax, which would reduce U.S. wheat’s competitiveness and push buyers elsewhere. With over 50% of the U.S. wheat crop—particularly from Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana—relying on ocean shipping, and many shipments using Chinese-built or owned vessels, the impact would be significant. While supporting U.S. shipbuilding, USW and NAWG urge the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to reconsider the proposals to prevent harm to agriculture and trade.

The current administration plans to impose multimillion-dollar fees on Chinese container ships docking in U.S. ports to counter China’s dominance in shipbuilding and revive the U.S. maritime industry. The administration argues that unfair Chinese trade practices have weakened American shipyards, and the revenue from these fees would be used to subsidize domestic shipbuilding. Experts warn that the move could disrupt global supply chains, increase shipping costs, and cause congestion at major U.S. ports. Analysts warn that high costs, supply chain disruptions, and limited shipyard capacity could undermine the effectiveness of the strategy.

Idaho’s agricultural leaders are weighing the potential impacts of reinstated tariffs on key commodities like dairy, wheat, cattle, and potatoes. Past trade policies opened new markets, but also led to retaliatory tariffs that hurt exports and increased input costs. Industry representatives express concerns that renewed tariffs could reduce market access, drive up production costs, and make U.S. products less competitive globally. Key export destinations for Idaho’s commodities include Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and China. Leaders emphasize the need for stable trade policies to maintain Idaho’s agricultural strength in global markets.

A comprehensive Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) shows significant sustainability improvements in U.S. wheat production from 1978 to 2018. Conducted by Texas A&M and Colorado State Universities, the study found per-bushel reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (33%), energy use (57%), water use (46%), land use (45%), and soil erosion (60%). These improvements stem from precision farming, reduced tillage, and better resource management. U.S. Wheat Associates and industry leaders are sharing the findings to highlight wheat’s environmental progress and build confidence among global buyers.

USDA’s latest market estimate projects larger wheat supplies in the U.S. and globally, making it difficult for wheat prices to rise. Less than 5% of the crop has been sold so far, well below the typical 15%. More wheat could enter the market at harvest, putting downward pressure on prices. USDA also forecasts fewer wheat exports, with soft white and hard red winter wheat numbers remaining unchanged. Market movement this spring will likely be driven by wheat futures rather than cash prices, with limited opportunities for strong rallies. Analysts expect some price rallies due to potential weather concerns but caution that wheat prices are unlikely to rise significantly in the near future.

The U.S. wheat industry remains optimistic about the future of wheat in food aid programs, as 286,000 tons of hard red winter and soft white wheat have been purchased for USDA and USAID initiatives. A 200,000-ton purchase for the Food for Progress program marks one of the largest recent food aid purchases, valued at $50 million, while another 86,000 tons of soft white wheat for USAID’s Food for Peace program sold for about $20 million. Changes to USAID’s programs have sparked discussions about moving the Food for Peace program under USDA. The wheat industry supports this move, which would require congressional action. Industry leaders believe restructuring could improve efficiency, maximize food purchases, and enhance global food aid efforts.