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USDA’s latest market estimate projects larger wheat supplies in the U.S. and globally, making it difficult for wheat prices to rise. Less than 5% of the crop has been sold so far, well below the typical 15%. More wheat could enter the market at harvest, putting downward pressure on prices. USDA also forecasts fewer wheat exports, with soft white and hard red winter wheat numbers remaining unchanged. Market movement this spring will likely be driven by wheat futures rather than cash prices, with limited opportunities for strong rallies. Analysts expect some price rallies due to potential weather concerns but caution that wheat prices are unlikely to rise significantly in the near future.

The U.S. wheat industry remains optimistic about the future of wheat in food aid programs, as 286,000 tons of hard red winter and soft white wheat have been purchased for USDA and USAID initiatives. A 200,000-ton purchase for the Food for Progress program marks one of the largest recent food aid purchases, valued at $50 million, while another 86,000 tons of soft white wheat for USAID’s Food for Peace program sold for about $20 million. Changes to USAID’s programs have sparked discussions about moving the Food for Peace program under USDA. The wheat industry supports this move, which would require congressional action. Industry leaders believe restructuring could improve efficiency, maximize food purchases, and enhance global food aid efforts.

The Pacific Northwest (PNW) remains a key wheat-producing region, with 4.25 million acres of wheat planted in 2024 across Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, according to the USDA. Wheat is a staple crop in Idaho, grown in 42 of its 44 counties, with wheat growers in the state producing around 100 million bushels annually. Idaho consistently ranks among the top states for wheat yields and quality, supplying both domestic and international markets. Idaho is the only state that grow five of the six wheat classes, with soft white wheat being a standout for its consistent quality. The state’s climate, soil, and access to irrigation help Idaho farmers grow consistently high-quality wheat.

Despite the rise of low-carb diets and discussions around GLP-1s and ultraprocessed foods, Ardent Mills’ research found that consumers generally have a favorable perception of grains. The study, which surveyed 10,000 U.S. consumers responsible for household food sourcing, revealed that 59% view grains as essential to the American diet, and 46% plan to eat more grains in the coming year—especially younger consumers aged 18 to 34. While 52% of consumers expressed a desire to learn more about grains, two-thirds said increased knowledge would lead them to eat more grain-based foods.