U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Board Members, staff, and wheat farmers from around the country gathered in Cincinnati, Ohio for a Joint Fall Board Meeting with the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG). The week was filled with discussion about this year's wheat harvest and the planting of next year's crop. There were several committee meetings, including a timely meeting of the Wheat Transportation Working Group.

In the history of warfare, belligerents have often targeted food supplies to force opponents into submission. However, in America’s wars over the last century, threats to domestic food security have been minimal. In many ways, the United States enjoyed insulation from combat conditions overseas that could have otherwise disrupted the country’s ability to feed itself...Grain plays an enormous role in feeding the world. Approximately 47 percent of all human caloric intake today comes from grains, and the United States is a significant contributor to global grain supplies.

More than 40 ports across the United States will receive $653 million in funding for improvement projects, including facilities in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota that will help with the movement of grain, the US Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration (MARAD) announced. Under the Port Infrastructure Development Program, the funding will help grow capacity and increase efficiency at coastal seaports, Great Lakes ports and inland river ports.

Due to unprecedented low levels on Gatun Lake, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is further limiting the number of daily vessel transits, reaching a low of 18 vessels per day by February 2024.The water level on Gatun Lake, which is the water source for the canal, is currently 79.7 feet, 7% below the prior five-year average for October, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Grain Transportation Report. The maximum sustainable capacity on the canal is 38-40 transits. The PCA took several water saving and conservation measures including reducing transit capacity to 32 vessels since July 30. Additional reductions were announced Sept. 29.

The Australian 2022/23 marketing year concluded at the end of September, and the final pieces of the season’s record grain export program were revealed, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics September export data report. Concentrating on the three key commodities of wheat, barley, and rapeseed (canola), Australia’s total exports for the 12 months came in at a record 44.8 million mt, with barley the only one not setting a new seasonal export record despite a late-season increase to China after it cut import tariffs in early August.

While wheat supplies seem plentiful, it should be noted that many countries will not have a bumper crop. Australia is currently harvesting a smaller crop, pegged at 24.5 mmt and Argentina's wheat crop has been reduced by drought coming in at 16.5 mmt. With wheat prices back to historically lower price levels, will additional end users step up purchases? After all, there are two global wars to contend with, and any flare up may affect commodity prices. Will end users want to get in front of that to secure supplies? Or have end users gone back to a complacent “hand to mouth” purchase mentality, and will only buy when needed?

Forging stronger political ties, Russia and China also are expanding agricultural trade, promising changes for the global grain market. In October, Food Export Trade, a Russian grain exporting firm, signed a $26 billion contract to supply China with 70 million tonnes of grain, legumes and oilseeds over the next 12 years. This is one of the biggest contracts in the history of the Russia-China trade relationship, said Karen Ovesepyan, head of the New Land-Based Grain Corridor Initiative, an infrastructure project designed to facilitate grain exports to China.