IDAHO WHEAT COMMISSION

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Uncertainty dominates global, U.S. wheat markets

A month after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, combat continues to roil myriad world markets, not the least of which is wheat. Uncertainty about world supplies continues to underpin US wheat prices, which built in a risk premium of about $1 a bushel in the month following the invasion.  The key unknowns are how much winter wheat Ukrainian producers will be able to harvest, how much spring wheat and other crops they can seed in the just-underway planting period, and how much grain eventually can be shipped from compromised ports in the Eastern European nation. Some analysts have suggested only 40% to 60% of typical acreage might be seeded this spring in Ukraine.