Chicago wheat futures this week hit their lowest levels in almost three years, yet relative to demand, exportable global wheat supplies are expected to approach historic minimums by mid-2024. In theory, that news should limit further slippage in world wheat prices, but there is one problem: this is a recurring story that has yet to become reality. Russia’s early 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent wheat prices to new highs as the two countries account for nearly 30% of global exports. Concerns over Ukraine’s production and export potential have lingered ever since, though this has largely been a bearish factor for prices rather than a bullish one.