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A small grains economist at Washington State University, shared an optimistic yet cautious outlook for wheat prices at the Tri-State Grain Growers Convention. Weaker basis levels signal potential for price increases if futures rise, supported by reduced Black Sea exports and improved U.S. export performance. Challenges include a strong U.S. dollar, high ending stocks, and proposed tariffs that could impact key markets. Fortenbery advised farmers to monitor market conditions, consider hedge-to-arrive contracts, and capitalize on short-term price opportunities.

Global wheat trade is predicted to increase by 50% over the next 25 years, rising from 216 million metric tons to over 325 million metric tons, according to Vince Peterson, president of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW). Peterson emphasized the U.S.'s strong position in selling premium-quality wheat to high-paying markets despite holding only an 11% global market share. U.S. wheat production has reached 54 million metric tons, an eight-year high, with export projections of 22.5 million metric tons—the highest in four years. Soft white wheat, predominantly grown in the Pacific Northwest, has seen nearly a 50% increase in export sales compared to last year. Key markets such as the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand have recorded significant growth, with South Korea seeing a 132% increase in milling wheat imports.

International agricultural trade is essential to the U.S. economy, contributing over $100 billion in export value from key commodities, including soybeans, corn, and wheat. Wheat, a cornerstone of Idaho’s agricultural industry, plays a significant role in these exports, Challenges like tariffs, trade wars, and growing competition from South America threaten U.S. market share, which has declined from 62% in 1979 to 12% today. While tariffs can benefit some domestic industries, they often undermine agricultural exports by accelerating foreign competition. To stay competitive, investments in trade relations, infrastructure improvements, and legislation are critical. Enhancing transportation systems and expanding ports ensures Idaho wheat and other U.S. commodities remain integral to global markets and continue to support the economy.

U.S. farmers approach 2025 with cautious optimism, navigating challenges shaped by labor, trade, weather, and shifting market dynamics. Trade remains vital to agricultural success, and for Idaho commodities, protecting and expanding export markets is crucial amid ongoing uncertainties. Economic pressures are mounting, with rising production costs, escalating labor expenses, and declining farm incomes placing significant strain on farmers. According to University of Idaho Professor Xiaoli Etienne, fertilizer prices have stabilized, but global factors like China’s export restrictions continue to create market volatility. Meanwhile, relief from high fuel and equipment costs seems unlikely in the near future.