Idaho Wheat Commission

Wheat prices spiral; analysts predict continued volatility

Commodity prices made the biggest jump in 50 years last week, and wheat market analysts say the future remains unclear. “This is far from normal,” said Darin Newsom, a market analyst in Omaha, Neb. “We have an extremely volatile situation right now where ... the heaviest-traded futures contract and the heaviest-traded market can’t find a way to trade.” The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group on March 7 increased its daily limit to 85 cents per bushel, with an expanded limit of $1.30 per bushel. That means the Chicago and Kansas City wheat markets have a $1.30 daily limit, so prices could go up or down a maximum of $1.30 a bushel, Newsom said. If the market does not reach that limit today, it will drop back to 85 cents, Newsom said. In its announcement, the CME Group said the amended daily price limit will continue until the next regularly scheduled daily price limit reset in May.

March 25, 2025

Life Cycle Analysis Confirms Continuous Improvement in Sustainable U.S. Wheat Production

A comprehensive Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) shows significant sustainability improvements in U.S. wheat production from 1978 to 2018. Conducted by Texas A&M and Colorado State Universities, the study found per-bushel reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (33%), energy use (57%), water use (46%), land use (45%), and soil erosion (60%). These improvements stem from precision farming, reduced tillage, and better resource management. U.S. Wheat Associates and industry leaders are sharing the findings to highlight wheat’s environmental progress and build confidence among global buyers.

March 25, 2025

USDA: Larger Wheat Supplies, Fewer Exports, Lower Prices

USDA’s latest market estimate projects larger wheat supplies in the U.S. and globally, making it difficult for wheat prices to rise. Less than 5% of the crop has been sold so far, well below the typical 15%. More wheat could enter the market at harvest, putting downward pressure on prices. USDA also forecasts fewer wheat exports, with soft white and hard red winter wheat numbers remaining unchanged. Market movement this spring will likely be driven by wheat futures rather than cash prices, with limited opportunities for strong rallies. Analysts expect some price rallies due to potential weather concerns but caution that wheat prices are unlikely to rise significantly in the near future.

March 25, 2025

Wheat Bound for Food Aid Proceeds, Food for Peace Expected to Continue

The U.S. wheat industry remains optimistic about the future of wheat in food aid programs, as 286,000 tons of hard red winter and soft white wheat have been purchased for USDA and USAID initiatives. A 200,000-ton purchase for the Food for Progress program marks one of the largest recent food aid purchases, valued at $50 million, while another 86,000 tons of soft white wheat for USAID’s Food for Peace program sold for about $20 million. Changes to USAID’s programs have sparked discussions about moving the Food for Peace program under USDA. The wheat industry supports this move, which would require congressional action. Industry leaders believe restructuring could improve efficiency, maximize food purchases, and enhance global food aid efforts.

March 25, 2025

Wheat is the Number One Crop in the Pacific Northwest

The Pacific Northwest (PNW) remains a key wheat-producing region, with 4.25 million acres of wheat planted in 2024 across Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, according to the USDA. Wheat is a staple crop in Idaho, grown in 42 of its 44 counties, with wheat growers in the state producing around 100 million bushels annually. Idaho consistently ranks among the top states for wheat yields and quality, supplying both domestic and international markets. Idaho is the only state that grow five of the six wheat classes, with soft white wheat being a standout for its consistent quality. The state’s climate, soil, and access to irrigation help Idaho farmers grow consistently high-quality wheat.

March 21, 2025

Ardent Mills Research Reveals Positive View of Grains

Despite the rise of low-carb diets and discussions around GLP-1s and ultraprocessed foods, Ardent Mills’ research found that consumers generally have a favorable perception of grains. The study, which surveyed 10,000 U.S. consumers responsible for household food sourcing, revealed that 59% view grains as essential to the American diet, and 46% plan to eat more grains in the coming year—especially younger consumers aged 18 to 34. While 52% of consumers expressed a desire to learn more about grains, two-thirds said increased knowledge would lead them to eat more grain-based foods.