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| Wheat stocks seen recovering faster than thought |
| 9/5/2008 |
World-Grain.com
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LONDON, ENGLAND — World wheat ending stocks were projected at 151 million tonnes in 2009, up 29 million tonnes, or 24%, from 2008, according to data issued Aug. 29 by the International Grains Council (IGC).
The carryover forecast of 151 million tonnes is up 7 million from the Council’s July 31 forecast, which would have represented an 18% increase from last year. In its initial 2008-09 forecast issued April 24, the IGC projected the 2009 wheat carryover at 128 million tonnes, representing a modest 5% increase.
The carryover of 151 million tonnes would be the largest since 2002-03.
"There will be a significant recovery in stocks in the five major exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, E.U. and U.S.): the new projection is 41 million tonnes, 13 million more than at the end of 2007-08," the IGC said.
Helping create the larger year-end buffer has been steady improvement in production prospects, especially in the European Union, Russia and the Ukraine. Wheat production in 2008-09 was projected at 672 million tonnes, up 10 million tonnes from July and up 10% from 609 million tonnes in 2007-08.
While the crop will be the largest ever, wheat quality issues have emerged in many areas.
"Rains in much of the E.U. delayed harvesting and affected wheat quality," the IGC said. "Most of Ukraine’s large crop will be graded as feed.
"In Argentina, where sowings are sharply lower than last year, dry weather slowed crop development, but rains improved prospects in Australia."
Total wheat use in 2008-09 was forecast at 643 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from July and up 5% from 2007-08. The council projected wheat feeding to climb to 111 million tonnes, the highest level in 17 years.
The council projected world wheat exports at 115 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from July and up 6% from 109 million tonnes in 2007-08.
"Milling wheat purchases are picking up because of poor crops in some countries (notably Iran and Pakistan) and restocking in others," the IGC said. "Lower-grade wheat, in ample supply in Europe and the Black Sea region, will compete strongly in feed markets."
The Council projected U.S. wheat exports to decline from 2007-08 but for shipments from the E.U. and Ukraine to rise.
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